Market Analysis for February 25th, 2026

STA Research
February 25th, 2026
Market Analysis for February 25th, 2026
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Global Markets

Canadian Markets

Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index moved higher on commodity strength,  with gold climbing on a softer U.S. dollar, and crude oil prices rising amid persistent geopolitical risk tied to potential U.S.–Iran tensions.  U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that Canada should expect tariffs to remain embedded in any future trade agreement with the United States, including negotiations tied to renewal of the Canada–U.S.–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) under the Trump administration.

American Markets

US stocks rose as investors shrugged off concerns over valuation exposure to artificial intelligence-linked stocks and tariff-related macro risks.   After the market closed, Nvidia reported fiscal fourth-quarter results that exceeded consensus expectations on both revenue and earnings per share, reinforcing the durability of AI-driven demand. The company issued first-quarter revenue guidance in the range of $76.44 billion to $79.56 billion, materially above analyst estimates of approximately $72.8 billion, suggesting continued momentum in data-center GPU deployments. The forward guidance alleviated near-term concerns about decelerating AI capital expenditure and provided validation for the broader semiconductor ecosystem, contributing to after-hours gains and improving overall risk sentiment.

European Markets

European equity markets rose, supported by a rebound in financial stocks, reflecting improved earnings visibility and capital return expectations.  German consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined heading into March, indicating that households are feeling more pessimistic about the economy and their personal financial situation.

UK stocks rose, with strength from financial and mning sectors. Scotland’s economic growth rate outperformed the UK as a whole in 2025. The British public’s expectations for inflation over 2026 fell sharply in February, according to a monthly survey by YouGov.  Short-term inflation expectations dropped to 3.3% in February from 3.8% in January, while long-term expectations fell to 3.6% from 4.1%, signaling easing inflationary pressures.

Corporate Stock News

Alphabet Inc (GOOGL): Google said it disrupted a Chinese-linked hacking group that breached at least 53 organizations across 42 countries by terminating Google Cloud projects, disabling infrastructure and accounts used for data theft, underscoring its cybersecurity enforcement efforts.

Altus Group Ltd (AIF:CA): TD Cowen cut its target price to C$55 from C$67, citing multiple compression across the software sector and the company’s transition to a SaaS-aligned reporting framework.

Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON): The taser maker beat fourth-quarter earnings estimates with adjusted EPS of $2.15 versus $1.60 expected, driven by 38% growth in connected devices revenue and 40% growth in software and services, though margins were pressured by tariffs and product mix, and it forecast 2026 revenue growth of 27–30%.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc (AYA:CA): National Bank of Canada raised its target price to C$35 from C$29, citing positive Boumadine drill results that expand exploration potential and project upside.

Bank of Montreal (BMO:CA): The bank reported higher first-quarter adjusted profit of C$2.55 billion, or C$3.48 per share, versus C$2.29 billion a year earlier, as provisions for credit losses declined to C$746 million from C$1.01 billion.

Cava Group Inc (CAVA): The restaurant chain forecast annual same-store sales above expectations amid resilient demand for its Mediterranean offerings, though it guided to a fiscal 2026 profit margin of 23.7%–24.2% due to higher commodity and tariff costs.

Chevron Corp (CVX): Gerdes Energy Research raised its target price to $177 from $173, citing stronger U.S. downstream cash generation, improved affiliate income, and a reduced share count.

Circle Internet Group Inc (CRCL): The company reported a 72% rise in USDC circulation to $75.3 billion, lifting reserve revenue to $733 million and driving a 412% jump in fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to $167 million.

CoStar Group Inc (CSGP): The commercial property platform forecast first-quarter revenue and profit below expectations due to economic uncertainty, despite reporting fourth-quarter results that exceeded estimates.

EOG Resources Inc (EOG): The shale producer beat fourth-quarter profit estimates with adjusted EPS of $2.27 and forecast 2026 free cash flow of $4.5 billion, alongside disciplined production and capital spending guidance.

Faraday Copper Corp (FDY:CA): TD Cowen resumed coverage with a Buy rating and raised its target price to C$5.50 from C$3.50, citing improved project scale and capital efficiency following a proposed transaction.

First Solar Inc (FSLR): The solar panel maker projected 2026 net sales of $4.9–$5.2 billion, below analyst expectations, citing permitting delays and tariff impacts, though quarterly EPS rose to $4.84 from $3.65 year-over-year.

Gildan Activewear Inc (GIL:CA): Desjardins raised its target price to C$108 from C$95, citing expected EPS growth from the HBI acquisition, synergy realization, and strong free cash flow supporting capital returns.

GoDaddy Inc (GDDY): The company forecast annual revenue below expectations due to slower AI tool adoption, while JPMorgan cut its target price to $167 from $200 citing softer FY26 guidance and growth headwinds..

HP Inc (HPQ): The company reported first-quarter EPS of 81 cents beating estimates but warned of memory cost volatility and weaker PC margins, while JPMorgan cut its target price to $19 from $21.

HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC): The bank raised its return on tangible equity target to 17% or better through 2028 after annual profit beat forecasts despite a 7% drop in pretax earnings.

Home Depot Inc (HD): Jefferies raised its target price to $454 from $424, citing strong fourth-quarter execution and improving confidence in a housing recovery.

Lowe’s Companies Inc (LOW): The retailer forecast 2026 sales and EPS below expectations amid cautious consumer spending, though fourth-quarter same-store sales rose 1.3%.

Lucid Group Inc (LCID): The EV maker reported a wider-than-expected fourth-quarter loss despite a 123% revenue increase and forecast slower 2026 production growth, with $4.6 billion in liquidity.

MercadoLibre Inc (MELI): The e-commerce company posted a 12.5% decline in quarterly profit despite 45% revenue growth, as higher credit and logistics investments pressured margins.

Mosaic Co (MOS): The fertilizer producer missed fourth-quarter earnings expectations due to lower U.S. phosphate demand and forecast $1.5 billion in annual capital spending.

National Bank of Canada (NA:CA): The lender reported first-quarter adjusted profit of C$1.32 billion, or C$3.25 per share, supported by strong investment banking and wealth management performance and higher net interest income.

On Holding Ltd (ONON): The sportswear brand opened a robot-operated factory in South Korea and plans similar facilities in the U.S. and Europe to enhance speed, sustainability, and supply chain efficiency.

Realty Income Corp (O): The REIT forecast 2026 adjusted FFO per share below expectations amid slowing demand and higher property costs, though quarterly revenue beat estimates.

Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI:CA): Shares surged after the company said its AI-powered assistant CoCounsel reached one million users, alleviating disruption concerns and marking its largest percentage gain since 2009.

Workday Inc (WDAY): The company forecast fiscal 2027 subscription revenue below expectations due to slower enterprise deal closures, while Jefferies cut its target price to $115 from $150 on weaker growth and margin outlook.

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