Analyst Rating Coverage
STA Research (Analyst Rank#43 of 341) issued a research report on Novavax’s stock and maintained the “Hold” rating. The research company has no assigned target valuation assigned to the company, and believe the company is currently trading on the higher end of it’s valuation model.
NVAX Stock Forecast
Novavax Inc is a biotechnology company that specializes in the development of vaccines. According to the stock forecast provided by four analysts, the average analyst target price for Novavax Inc over the next 12 months is USD 18.33. This suggests that the analysts have a positive outlook on the stock and believe it has the potential to increase in value.
The average analyst rating for Novavax Inc is “Buy,” indicating that the majority of analysts who cover the stock recommend buying it. This positive sentiment could be influenced by various factors such as the company’s pipeline of vaccine candidates, its track record of research and development, or its potential for future growth.
Stock Target Advisor’s analysis offers a slightly bearish perspective on Novavax Inc. Their analysis is based on a combination of positive and negative signals. They have identified four positive signals that could indicate potential upside for the stock, but also five negative signals that suggest caution.
As of the last closing, Novavax Inc’s stock price was USD 7.23. This price reflects a change of -2.69% over the past week, -3.21% over the past month, and a significant decrease of -90.50% over the last year. These figures indicate that the stock has experienced a considerable decline in value over the past year, which could be a result of various factors such as market conditions, regulatory challenges, or competition within the biotechnology sector.
Fundamentals Analysis
What to like:
- Superior risk-adjusted returns: Novavax has delivered strong performance compared to its sector peers when considering risk over a hold period of at least 12 months. It ranks in the top quartile, indicating superior risk-adjusted returns.
- High market capitalization: Novavax is one of the largest entities in its sector, placing it in the top quartile. Larger companies often exhibit greater stability.
- Superior revenue growth: Over the past five years, Novavax has achieved top quartile revenue growth compared to its sector peers. This indicates strong growth potential for the company.
- High Gross Profit to Asset Ratio: Novavax stands out among its peers with a top-quartile Gross Profit to Asset Ratio. This measure is popular among value investors as it suggests the potential for superior long-term returns.
What not to like:
- Overpriced compared to book value: Novavax’s stock is trading at a high valuation compared to the median of its peers based on the price-to-book value ratio. This may indicate that the stock is relatively expensive.
- High volatility: Novavax’s total returns have exhibited above-median volatility within its sector over the past five years. Investing in such a stock requires careful consideration of risk tolerance.
- Negative cash flow: Novavax has experienced negative total cash flow in the most recent four quarters. This suggests that the company’s cash inflows have been outweighed by outflows during that period.
- Negative free cash flow: Similarly, Novavax has had negative total free cash flow in the most recent four quarters. This indicates that the company’s operating cash flow has not been sufficient to cover its capital expenditures.
- Low earnings growth: Over the past five years, Novavax has shown below-median earnings growth compared to its sector peers. This suggests that the company’s earnings have not grown at a rate comparable to its industry counterparts.
Novavax has demonstrated several positive aspects in its fundamental analysis, including superior risk-adjusted returns, high market capitalization, strong revenue growth, and a favorable Gross Profit to Asset Ratio. However, there are also concerning factors, such as a potentially overpriced stock, high volatility, negative cash flow, negative free cash flow, and below-median earnings growth.
