Oil Price Surge Sinks Stocks-Market Analysis for March 5th, 2026

STA Research
March 5th, 2026
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Global Markets

Global financial markets showed heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic concerns weighed on investor sentiment across North America and Europe.

Canadian Markets

In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Index declined almost 1.5%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure as investors reacted to rising geopolitical risks and currency weakness.  Crude Oil and West Texas Intermediate surged more than 8%, driven by fears that escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt global energy supplies. Tiff Macklem, head of the Bank of Canada, stated that the intensifying conflict involving Iran has already increased turbulence in energy and financial markets, underscoring the potential for geopolitical shocks to ripple through the global economy. He also warned that the rapid expansion of private credit markets and increased hedge fund participation in sovereign bond trading could create systemic risks.

American Markets

U.S. stock indexes moved lower as investors sought safety amid the rising geopolitical uncertainty and the rapid climb in energy prices. The United States Dollar resumed its upward trend after a brief pullback from recent three-month highs, as investors increased allocations to traditional safe-haven assets during the period of uncertainty.  Despite the broader market weakness, Broadcom Inc. stood out as a positive performer, as the semiconductor and infrastructure software giant saw its shares jump nearly 5% in trading after delivering strong quarterly earnings and an optimistic long-term outlook extending into 2027. Investors responded positively to continued growth in artificial intelligence infrastructure demand, which is driving orders for the company’s custom AI chips and networking components used in hyperscale data centers.

European Markets

European markets also moved lower as policymakers raised warnings about inflation risks tied to energy prices. Officials from the European Central Bank cautioned that a prolonged conflict involving Iran could drive oil prices higher for an extended period, potentially reversing recent progress on inflation. Analysts at Morgan Stanley suggested that if energy prices remain elevated due to the Middle East crisis, the ECB may have little room to cut interest rates further in 2026, as higher fuel costs could push consumer prices upward across the eurozone.  Investors raised concerns iver European banks expsoure to  U.S. commercial real estate, which has been experiencing persistent stress due to high interest rates and declining office occupancy levels. German lenders with exposure to global property markets have come under scrutiny as investors worry that deteriorating asset values in the United States could spill over into the European banking sector.

UK markets also fell as economic indicators pointed to continued weakness in key sectors. The FTSE 100 declined after data showed the UK construction industry extended its longest contraction since the global financial crisis, according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The weak data reflects slowing property development, reduced infrastructure spending, and tighter financing conditions.  Tesla Inc. reported that its UK vehicle sales fell 37%, highlighting intensifying competition from lower-cost Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers entering the European market. Recent surveys indicated that UK firms’ wage growth expectations remain near a four-year low, suggesting businesses are becoming increasingly cautious about hiring and salary increases amid the uncertain economic outlook.

Corporate Stock News

Amazon.com Inc: The company confirmed layoffs in its robotics unit, affecting at least 100 white-collar positions. The division focuses on automation and warehouse robotics, and Amazon said the cuts were part of organizational reviews to optimize innovation and delivery.

American Eagle Outfitters: Forecasts annual sales above estimates, expecting mid-single-digit comparable sales growth. Holiday-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.84 exceeded expectations of $0.72. Operating income fell to $226 million due to a $102 million impairment from exiting its e-commerce logistics business, while quarterly revenue of $1.76 billion slightly exceeded forecasts.

Bath & Body Works Inc: JPMorgan cut its target price to $22 from $23 after the company projected a sharper-than-expected annual sales decline.

BHP Group Ltd: China’s state-owned iron ore buyer imposed restrictions on purchasing new seaborne cargoes of BHP’s flagship products (Mac fines, Newman fines, Newman lumps), extending a months-long contract dispute.

Broadcom Inc: The company expects AI chip revenue to exceed $100 billion in 2027, with Q2 revenue projected at $22 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $20.56 billion. First-quarter revenue rose 29% to $19.31 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.05 beating forecasts. Growth in infrastructure software slowed slightly.

Brown-Forman Corp: Plans to expand premium spirits in India, including El Jimador, Herradura, and Benriach, targeting three to four additional brands over two to three years to increase presence in the country.

Bunge Global Ltd: Exploring alternative shipping routes amid Middle East conflict, monitoring potential disruptions to Gulf exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd: Reported stronger-than-expected Q4 profits with production of 1.66 million boepd, up 12.8% from a year earlier. Adjusted EPS came in at 82 CAD cents versus estimates of 69 CAD cents, and 2026 production forecast raised to 1.62–1.67 million boepd.

Eli Lilly and Co: Launched a platform helping employers access low-cost obesity-care programs for employees, improving affordability and transparency for weight-loss drug Zepbound.

Endeavour Mining Corporation: TD Securities maintained with a Buy rating and CIBC World Markets maintained with a Outperform and a $117.00 price target.

Exxon Mobil Corp: Will ship 300,000 barrels of gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Australia to meet import requirements, chartering medium-range vessels at approximately $20 per barrel. Total shipments expected to reach 600,000 barrels.

Johnson & Johnson: Launched J&J Direct, a website selling select drugs (Invokana, Invokamet, Xarelto) directly to U.S. patients without insurance or paying out-of-pocket, as part of a cost-reduction agreement with the U.S. government.

Knife River Corp: JPMorgan raised its target price to $90 from $83 after Q4 results exceeded expectations, driven by acquisitions and higher aggregate and ready-mix volumes.

Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc: Engaged with U.S. officials to restore maritime trade amid Middle East tensions; welcomed a directive providing political risk insurance for Gulf shipping.

Meta Platforms Inc: Indonesia issued a warning to Meta over insufficient compliance with regulations on disinformation, online gambling, defamation, and hate speech across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

Moderna Inc: Berenberg raised its target price to $45 from $32, citing improved outlook due to regulatory momentum for key vaccines and resolution of major litigation without future royalty obligations.

Morgan Stanley: Laid off approximately 3% of its workforce (2,500 employees) across investment banking, trading, wealth management, and investment management divisions, citing strategy and performance.

Nvidia Corp & TSMC: Nvidia halted production of H200 AI chips for the Chinese market and reallocated TSMC manufacturing capacity toward next-generation Vera Rubin hardware.

Okta Inc: Reported Q1 revenue of $749–753 million (9% growth), below analyst expectations. Adjusted EPS projected at $0.84–0.86 versus $0.87 consensus. Scotiabank cut the target price to $80 from $85 due to weaker margins forecast.

Palantir Technologies Inc: Must unwind AI model integration with Anthropic due to Pentagon disputes over safety guardrails, potentially affecting $1B+ defense contracts. CEO Alex Karp highlighted risks of AI in military software and potential for nationalization of technology.

Robinhood Markets Inc: Launched a Platinum credit card for high-income users at $695 annually, offering $3,000 in benefits, aiming to compete with American Express and JPMorgan Chase.

Tesla Inc: UK sales fell 37% YoY in February amid competition from Chinese EV makers like BYD. Overall UK new car sales rose 7.2% to 90,100 units. Tesla emphasized quarterly registration data is a better measure of sales.

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