Global Markets
Canadian Markets
Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite advanced more than 0.5%, with gains heavily concentrated in energy names as crude prices extended their rally. The move reflects a classic macro transmission: rising geopolitical risk premiums feed directly into oil, which in turn lifts Canada’s resource-weighted market.
Dollarama Inc. recently reported earnings and announced a dividend increase to $0.12 per share (up from $0.1058), as the stock fell more than 7% post-earnings on the news, indicating concerns around underlying operating momentum. While revenue rose 11.7% year-over-year to $2.1 billion, comparable-store sales growth of just 1.5% fell short of typical expectations for a discount retailer in a still-inflationary environment.
The Business Council of Canada sees the Canadian economy as operating in “crosswinds.” Growth remains modest but positive (~1.7%), supported by resilient consumer spending, public infrastructure outlays, and elevated commodity prices. However, forward momentum is constrained by persistently weak business investment, a structural issue suppressing productivity gains and long-term potential output.
American Markets
American markets are experiencing heightened volatility today as investors grapple with the dual pressures of rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. The spike in crude prices is increasing concerns about upward inflationary pressure, which could force the Federal Reserve to maintain or even tighten its monetary policy for longer than previously expected. Higher interest rates generally increase the cost of capital, reduce future cash flow valuations, and put pressure on valuation multiples, particularly for rate-sensitive sectors such as technology, utilities, and growth-oriented companies that rely heavily on discounted future earnings. At the same time, energy and commodity-linked sectors are benefiting from higher prices, creating a sectoral divergence in market performance. The combination of uncertain Fed policy, elevated input costs, and uneven sector impacts is resulting in choppy trading, wider intraday swings, and an overall cautious investor sentiment, with many market participants adopting a selective, stock-by-stock approach rather than broad index exposure. This environment reinforces the need for active risk management and close monitoring of both macroeconomic indicators and corporate earnings guidance, as any shift in inflation expectations or Fed signaling could quickly amplify market swings.
European Markets
European traded Tuesday in a mixed fashion, as data has revealed Germany is showing early signs of economic fatigue, with private sector growth slowing to a three-month low, and business sentiment deteriorating even prior to the Iran conflict escalation.
In the UK, markets moved broadly higher on strength in energy and financial setors, but macro data is weakening. Retail sales data showed that retail sales figures showed their sharpest drop since 2020, according to the CBI, while rising input costs tied to energy shocks are feeding through to inflation. Morgan Stanley has also warned that the UK is at increasing risk of entering a recession.
Corporate Stock News
Alphabet Inc: Google won a U.S. court ruling dismissing a 2023 antitrust lawsuit accusing it of monopolizing the online news market and using publisher content without payment. The judge found the plaintiffs lacked standing and that claims regarding mergers and acquisitions were filed too late.
Amazon.com Inc: Amazon’s AWS region in Bahrain was disrupted amid the Middle East conflict, due to drone activity. The company is helping migrate customers to alternate regions while assessing the impact.
Apollo Global Management Inc: Apollo Debt Solutions curbed redemptions to 5% of shares after investors sought 11.2% withdrawals from its $25 billion private credit fund, leaving $730 million in gross outflows and highlighting investor caution in private credit.
BP PLC: USW said BP locked out nearly 800 workers at its Whiting, Indiana refinery amid stalled contract negotiations. BP said it would continue bargaining in good faith and lift the lockout if the union accepted its proposal.
Broadcom Inc: The chipmaker is facing supply chain constraints, including capacity limits at TSMC, as AI demand strains production. Long-term agreements with suppliers are being used to secure capacity.
DraftKings Inc: The NCAA sued DraftKings over its online betting marketing of “March Madness,” alleging misuse of trademarks and risks to athletes. DraftKings stated it does not use the term as a trademark.
Fevertree Drinks PLC: Annual profit fell 16% after a one-off £2.8 million charge from a packaging levy. U.S. revenue rose 6% on a constant-currency basis. The company is challenging the levy legally.
Gilead Sciences Inc: Gilead agreed to acquire biotech firm Ouro Medicines for over $2 billion to expand its immune disorder pipeline, with upfront and milestone payments. Discussions continue with partner Galapagos for joint development.
Jefferies Financial Group Inc: Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group may consider a takeover of Jefferies. SMFG owns up to 20% of the bank after prior investments, but no deal is imminent.
Lamb Weston Holdings Inc: JPMorgan cut the target price to $44 from $50, citing weak international performance, pricing pressures, and historical volatility around earnings.
NextEra Energy Inc: NextEra secured land in Texas for a gas-fired plant to power a large data center campus under a U.S.-Japan agreement. Additional land and permits are required for a Pennsylvania site.
Oracle Corp: Oracle is revamping its cloud financial software for AI agents to answer business questions autonomously. The company has seen a 40% share price decline amid AI adoption concerns.
Sable Offshore Corp: California sued the U.S. Department of Energy to halt the restart of the Sable Offshore pipeline system, arguing the federal order violates state law and the Constitution.
Smithfield Foods Inc: Smithfield beat Q4 sales and profit estimates, with 7% revenue growth to $4.23 billion and rising packaged and fresh pork sales. Adjusted profit was 83 cents per share versus 68 cents expected.
Sunoco LP: JPMorgan raised its target price to $73 from $66, citing cost synergies from PKI integration and favorable geopolitical conditions supporting fuel distribution growth.
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc: Estee Lauder is in talks with Puig on a potential $40 billion luxury beauty merger, combining brands like Tom Ford and Carolina Herrera to better compete with L’Oreal.
TransAlta Corp: National Bank upgraded its rating to Outperform from Sector Perform, citing attractive risk-reward prospects and potential benefits from upcoming project approvals to boost electricity demand and prices in Alberta.
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