Market Analysis: July 3rd, 2025

Market Analysis: July 3rd, 2025

Global Markets

Canadian Markets

Canada’s TSX closed higher on Thursday, on bullish sentiment spilling over from south of the border, even though oil and gold prices retreated.  Canada’s trade deficit dropped to $5.9 billion in May, down from a record $7.6 billion in April, according to Statistics Canada. The improvement was driven by a 1.1% increase in exports, which totaled $60.8 billion. A key contributor was a 15.1% surge in metal and non-metallic mineral product exports, led by a 30.1% jump in unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals—primarily unwrought gold.  However it is expected that Canadian exports to the USA will continue to fall over the longer term, as trade volumes are being severly impacted by tariffs.

American Markets

American markets staged a broad based rally as employers in the U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, significantly exceeding the consensus forecast of 110,000. The unemployment rate, which was expected to tick up to 4.3%, instead dropped to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in May.

The better-than-expected labor data helped reinforce the belief that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing, even as inflation moderates and the Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate policy. The data may reduce the urgency for further rate hikes and supports the case for a soft landing.

European Markets

European markets also pushed higher after the European Central Bank (ECB) said that inflation across the eurozone is now on a long-term downward trajectory. That announcement helped lift investor sentiment across the continent and pushed the euro lower in intraday trading, giving a further tailwind to European exporters. German car exports to the U.S. fell in April and May, highlighting the impact of rising tariffs.

In the UK, stock markets rose following the release of strong services sector data. The S&P Global UK Services PMI rose to 52.8 in June from 50.9 in May, the fastest growth rate in ten months. The expansion reflects a rebound in spending by both businesses and consumers, as easing inflation provided a boost to economic activity. In a separate Bank of England (BoE) survey, UK firms reported trimming their expectations for wage growth in the year ahead—another signal that inflationary pressures may be moderating.

Corporate News

Airbus: Airbus is close to securing an order from Malaysia Aviation Group for additional A330neo long-haul jets, according to industry sources.

Alphabet Inc (Google): A jury in California ordered Google to pay over $314.6 million to Android users in a lawsuit alleging it misused cell phone data by collecting information from idle devices without user consent. Google plans to appeal the verdict.

Amazon.com Inc: Jeff Bezos sold approximately $737 million worth of Amazon shares in late June, part of a 10b5-1 trading plan adopted in March. Bezos still owns around 905 million shares of Amazon stock.

Barclays: Barclays has made executive changes in its Asia Pacific investment banking division to support growth, even as it reviews global capital allocation.

Centene Corp: Centene withdrew its 2025 earnings forecast after new data suggested a $1.8 billion drop in risk adjustment revenue, largely due to sicker patient populations and slower market growth. Shares fell in extended trading.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc: Goldman Sachs appointed Raghav Maliah as chairman of investment banking while retaining his current leadership roles in Asia Pacific M&A and TMT.

Intel Corp: Intel is considering shifting its foundry business strategy, potentially pulling back on offering its advanced 18A chipmaking technology to external customers—a move that could lead to major write-offs.

KKR & Co Inc: KKR will acquire British instrument maker Spectris for $6.46 billion, prompting Spectris to abandon a previous offer from Advent. Spectris shares soared nearly 88% since Advent’s initial bid in early June.

Paramount Global: Paramount agreed to a $16 million settlement with former U.S. President Donald Trump over a lawsuit regarding an interview broadcast. The funds will go to Trump’s future presidential library, not to him directly.

Siemens AG: Siemens received notification that U.S. export restrictions on chip design software for China have been lifted, according to a company statement reported by Bloomberg.

Tesla Inc: Tesla’s sales of China-made EVs rose 0.8% year-over-year in June, ending an eight-month losing streak, though quarterly sales still declined 6.8% amid intensifying competition from Chinese automakers.

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