Market Analysis for March 25th, 2026

Global Markets

Canadian Markets

Canada’s TSX climbed, driven largely by strong gains in the financial sector, even as several analysts cut 12-month target prices on Canadian banks, reflecting tempered growth expectations. Statistics Canada released a report on Wednesday highlighting that Canada’s economic performance continues to lag behind the United States, examining three key measures: labour productivity, real GDP per capita, and real gross national income (GNI) per capita. The report underscores that structural and cyclical factors have left Canada trailing the U.S. over multiple years, signaling challenges for long-term growth.

American Markets

U.S. stocks rose amid ongoing de-escalation talks, with lower oil prices helping to curb immediate inflation concerns. Yet economists remain cautious, raising the risk of a U.S. recession amid a strained labor market and heightened geopolitical risk. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, warned, “Recession risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise… Recession is a real threat here.”

Concerns about slowing growth and rising unemployment have sparked discussions of stagflation, although Fed Chair Jerome Powell has rejected the characterization. Domestic pressures, including the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs outside healthcare last year and the potential for a prolonged war, keep investor anxiety elevated.

In commodities, gold extended its rally, bolstering mining stocks, as a softer U.S. dollar and a 4% decline in oil prices eased inflation fears and reduced pressure on interest rates.

European Markets

European markets rose over 1%, even as German business sentiment weakened and the Iran conflict threatened to disrupt economic optimism. ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled that interest rate hikes remain possible if the conflict stokes inflation. In the U.K., stocks also rose, supported by a rebound in house prices — the smallest monthly decline since September 2024 — while inflation remained steady at 3% in February, ahead of potential upward pressure from Middle East instability.

Corporate Stock News

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN): JP Morgan raised the target price to $280 from $265, citing accelerating AWS growth and improving medium-term margins despite near-term cost pressures.

Arm Holdings PLC (ARM): U.S.-listed shares jumped nearly 12% premarket as the company projected roughly $15B in annual revenue in five years from its new AI data-center chip, with total revenue expected to reach $25B and earnings $9 per share. The new chip is designed for “agentic AI,” a pivot from traditional licensing-based revenue.

Disney, Walt Co (DIS): The $1B deal with OpenAI for AI video tool Sora was canceled. The move ends Disney’s planned short-form AI video initiative and investment in OpenAI, despite prior collaboration.

Freshpet Inc (FRPT): JP Morgan cut the target price to $66 from $80 due to rising competitive pressure and higher freight costs impacting near-term earnings.

GameStop Corp (GME): Reported a 14% drop in Q4 revenue to $1.10B amid pressure from declining brick-and-mortar sales and a shift to digital downloads. CEO Ryan Cohen focuses on collectibles and cost-cutting. Potential sale of French operations under discussion.

General Motors Co (GM): Plans $600M investment in South Korea to modernize two plants and boost production quality and technological competitiveness. GM Korea sold 462,310 vehicles in 2025, down 7.5% YoY. The 2018 government rescue package restricts GM’s exit for 10 years.

Intuitive Machines Inc (IM): NASA awarded a $180.4M contract for seven lunar payloads under the Artemis program, including Australian Space Agency rover and Honeybee Robotics technologies, targeting the moon’s south pole.

KB Home (KBH): Barclays cut the target price to $56 from $62, citing weaker March orders and softer FY26 delivery outlook despite expected margin improvements in H2.

Kraft Heinz Co (KHC): JP Morgan cut the target price to $21 from $22 due to modest early-quarter sales and ongoing pressures from higher costs and softer demand.

McCormick & Company Inc (MKC): JP Morgan lowered the target price to $67 from $78, reflecting softer first-quarter expectations and increased freight, fuel, and supply-chain costs.

Merck & Co Inc (MRK): Nearing a $6B all-cash acquisition of Terns Pharma to expand its oncology division around Keytruda ahead of patent expiration in 2028. Terns Pharma shares rose ~10% in after-hours trading.

Meta Platforms Inc (META): A New Mexico jury ordered Meta to pay $375M in civil penalties for misleading users about platform safety and child exploitation risks. Meta shares rose after-hours. The company plans to appeal.

Microsoft Corp (MSFT): Agreed to rent a Texas data center originally planned for Oracle and OpenAI. The Abilene site has 700 MW capacity and will support Microsoft’s cloud projects.

Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR): Collaborating with Anduril on software for the $185B U.S. Golden Dome missile defense initiative. The project aims to build a space-based missile shield with hundreds of companies involved.

Sony Group Corp (SONY): Sony Honda Mobility canceled its Afeela EV development, issuing full refunds to customers. The move is due to Honda’s reassessment of EV strategy and broader market conditions.

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS): Opened a $100M logistics center in northern Taiwan, its largest in Asia Pacific, supporting high-tech freight for companies like Applied Materials and TSMC.

Valero Energy Corp (VLO): Preparing to restart its 380,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery after a Tuesday explosion and fire. Operations were temporarily halted to repair unit 243 diesel hydrotreater.

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