Global Market Update
Canadian Markets
Canada’s TSX traded mixed amid a confluence of political and economic uncertainties. The market reacted to the outcome of Canada’s federal election, where Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party retained power but only secured a minority of seats in the House of Commons. This political result, while avoiding a change in leadership, introduces increased volatility and uncertainty for markets.
The Canadian economy is expected to decline sharply in Q2 2025, according to the CFIB’s Q1 2025 report. Economic growth was weak in Q1 at just 0.8%, while inflation rose to 2.4% and is forecasted to hit 2.7% in Q2. Private investment, which rebounded in late 2024, is projected to drop 13.9% in Q1 and 19.1% in Q2. Small and medium-sized businesses are struggling with weak demand and rising input costs.
American Markets
American stocks edged higher on cautious optimism. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, warned that China could lose up to 10 million jobs rapidly if current tariff levels are not reduced. President Donald Trump also indicated plans to ease tariffs on foreign automakers to buffer domestic industries — a move welcomed by markets, particularly those tied to auto manufacturing and supply chains. American consumer confidence declined for the fifth consecutive month in April, falling to a pandemic-era low due to concerns over President Trump’s trade policy, which raised inflation expectations and weakened labor market optimism. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 86, down from March’s revised 92.9 and below the 88 expected by economists.
European Markets
European markets traded mixed as investors digested a wave of Q1 corporate earnings results. While trade tensions between major economies have recently cooled, European companies are still facing headwinds, with first-quarter profits projected to decline by 1.7%. These figures reflect persistent concerns around cost inflation, weak demand in key sectors, and ongoing adjustments to global supply chain shifts.
In the UK, equities gained modestly — up about 0.5% — supported by currency strength as the British pound hovered near a 38-month high against the U.S. dollar. Investors also responded to a significant regulatory development: Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced draft legislation to formally regulate the crypto-asset industry. The proposed law would bring cryptocurrency exchanges, dealers, and agents under formal financial oversight for the first time, aiming to root out fraudulent actors while still promoting technological innovation and market stability. According to the UK finance ministry, this regulatory perimeter is designed to both safeguard investors and support the country’s ambitions as a fintech hub.
UK economic forecasts suggest that Trump-era tariffs could reduce British GDP growth by as much as 50%, underscoring the high economic stakes of global trade policy. This adds a layer of macroeconomic risk to markets already contending with inflation, policy tightening, and geopolitical friction.
Corporate Stock News
AstraZeneca Plc may face a fine of up to $8 million in China over suspected unpaid taxes related to its cancer drug Enhertu. The company reported core earnings per share (EPS) of $2.49 for the quarter, beating expectations of $2.27, though revenue missed at $13.6 billion versus an expected $13.8 billion. AstraZeneca reiterated its 2025 forecasts.
BP Plc reported a 48% drop in net profit to $1.4 billion due to weaker refining and gas trading, and announced a $750 million share buyback. First-quarter adjusted profit came in at $1.38 billion, below expectations of $1.53 billion, and down from $2.7 billion a year ago. The company also raised its asset sales outlook for the year to $3–$4 billion.
Brown & Brown Inc saw a 13% increase in net profit to $331 million in Q1, supported by a 12% rise in commissions and fees. Total revenue grew 11.6% to $1.40 billion, although investment income dipped to $19 million from $21 million.
Cadence Design Systems Inc raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $5.15 billion–$5.23 billion and its EPS forecast to $6.73–$6.83, amid strong demand for its chip design tools. The company reported first-quarter revenue of $1.24 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.57, beating expectations. However, tariff concerns in China remain a headwind.
Celestica Inc had its target price cut by BMO to C$118 from C$140, due to tariff uncertainty and sector-wide multiple compression.
Cincinnati Financial Corp posted a net loss of $90 million in Q1, citing $250 billion in economic losses from California wildfires and a $536 million after-tax drop in investment gains.
Coca-Cola Co reported a slight decline in Q1 revenue to $11.22 billion but beat expectations. Price hikes and strong demand for its beverages led to a 5% increase in average selling prices and a 2% rise in unit case volume.
Deutsche Bank AG posted a 39% increase in Q1 net profit to $2.03 billion, driven by strong bond and currency trading. Fixed-income revenue rose 17%, surpassing expectations.
Entergy Corp beat estimates with Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.82 and revenue of $2.85 billion, driven by 13.2% growth in residential sales and 9% growth in industrial sales. The company reaffirmed its full-year profit forecast of $3.75–$3.95 per share.
F5 Inc reported Q2 revenue of $731 million, above expectations, and raised its 2025 growth outlook to 6.5%–7.5%. The company forecast Q3 revenue between $740 million and $760 million, and systems revenue rose 27% year-over-year.
General Motors Co beat forecasts with Q1 revenue of $44 billion and EPS of $2.78, but withdrew its full-year outlook due to trade uncertainties. Net income fell 6.6% to $2.8 billion, and GM’s China business returned to profit.
Gerdau SA posted Q1 adjusted EBITDA of 2.4 billion reais, beating expectations, though net profit fell 39% year-over-year. Strong U.S. performance helped offset weakness in Brazil, with revenue reaching 17.38 billion reais.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc lowered its 2025 outlook for revenue per available room (RevPAR) to flat–2% growth and revised its full-year income forecast downward. Q1 revenue rose 4.7% to $2.70 billion.
Honeywell International Inc reported Q1 sales of $9.82 billion and EPS of $2.51. Aerospace sales rose 14%, and the company raised the lower end of its full-year EPS guidance while slightly narrowing its revenue forecast.
HSBC Holdings Plc posted Q1 profit before tax of $9.5 billion and warned that trade war fallout could impact loan demand and credit quality. The bank announced a $3 billion share buyback and maintained a mid-teens return target.
Labcorp Holdings Inc beat profit estimates with Q1 EPS of $3.84, but missed on revenue at $3.35 billion. The company raised the lower end of its 2025 profit forecast to $15.70 per share.
Merck & Co Inc announced a $1 billion investment in a new Delaware facility to make Keytruda domestically and mitigate tariff exposure. The plant is expected to open by 2030 and will generate thousands of jobs.
Novartis AG raised its 2025 earnings guidance to “low double-digit” growth after Q1 adjusted net income rose 22% to $4.48 billion. Strong sales of Kisqali and Leqvio drove the results.
Nucor Corp reported Q1 revenue of $7.83 billion and EPS of $0.77, both beating expectations, with steel shipments up 10%.
NXP Semiconductors NV announced CEO Kurt Sievers would retire, with Rafael Sotomayor taking over. Q1 revenue was $2.84 billion, slightly above estimates. Q2 revenue is forecast at $2.8–$3 billion.
Pfizer Inc posted Q1 EPS of $0.92, beating expectations, though revenue of $13.7 billion fell short. Sales of Vyndaqel were strong, and cost cuts contributed to earnings.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd raised its 2025 profit forecast to $14.55–$15.55 per share, driven by strong bookings for premium cruises and private island destinations.
Smithfield Foods Inc saw Q1 sales rise 9.5% to $3.77 billion and adjusted EPS increase.
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