EV Market Analysis
The first quarter of 2024 presented a mixed bag for the electric vehicle (EV) market in the United States.
- Moderate Growth in EV Registrations: While EV registrations did show growth in Q1, it was not particularly significant. In March, battery-electric registrations grew by 3.8% year-on-year (Y/Y), with the EV market share increasing marginally to 7.1%. However, this growth pales in comparison to the impressive 52% growth seen in 2023 compared to 2022.
- Tesla’s Stalling Growth: Despite still being the dominant player in the U.S. EV market, Tesla experienced a decline in its share of EV registrations, dropping to 52.4% in March from 61.5% the previous year. Tesla registrations fell by 12% Y/Y in March, following a 25% decline in February. Factors contributing to this decline include the Model 3’s refresh in January and changes in federal incentives.
- Challenges for Other OEMs: It wasn’t just Tesla facing challenges; other manufacturers like Chevrolet also experienced significant declines in registrations. Discontinuation of models like the Bolt contributed to a 66% Y/Y drop in registrations for Chevrolet in March. Additionally, some EV startups, notably Fisker, faced bankruptcy, indicating a tough quarter for the sector.
- Bright Spots for Some OEMs: Despite the overall subdued EV market, there were some bright spots for other OEMs. Ford saw a significant increase in EV registrations, tripling in March. Hyundai, Kia, BMW, Mercedes, and Rivian also saw varying degrees of growth, with some doubling or experiencing double-digit percentage increases.
- Momentum Slowing with Pricing and Vehicle Selection as Key Factors: While certain OEMs managed to grow registrations, overall momentum in the EV market appears to be slowing. Factors such as pricing and vehicle selection are expected to play crucial roles moving forward in shaping consumer interest in EVs.
Overall, the Q1 EV registration data highlights the challenges and opportunities present in the U.S. EV market. While Tesla’s dominance has shown signs of weakening and some OEMs face difficulties, others have managed to capitalize on the evolving landscape, indicating a dynamic and competitive market environment.
