Nvidia Corp: Will Earnings Propel Stock to Average Analyst Target of $169?

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)

Nvidia is once again in the spotlight as investors look ahead to the company’s earnings report after market close today (May 28th, 2025). The question on many investors’ minds is whether the chipmaker’s fundamental strength and continued momentum can drive its stock price to the average 12-month analyst target of $169.29 per share, up from its recent closing price of $135.50.

Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy with Room to Run

According to a forecast compiled from 30 analysts, Nvidia carries an average price target of $169.29, suggesting an upside potential of more than 22%. The consensus analyst rating is “Strong Buy,” reflecting high conviction in the company’s earnings power and leadership in AI and GPU technologies.

Nvidia’s earnings are expected to play a pivotal role in determining whether the stock can reach—or exceed—this target. Strong quarterly results, particularly from data center and AI-driven segments, could be the catalyst investors are waiting for.

Stock Target Advisor’s View: Slightly Bullish

Stock Target Advisor’s fundamental analysis gives Nvidia a “Slightly Bullish” rating, based on 11 positive and 7 negative fundamentals. While not as optimistic as the consensus analyst rating, this outlook still reflects an overall positive view driven by Nvidia’s fundamentals.

Positive Fundamentals

Nvidia exhibits several key strengths that place it in the top quartile among its peers:

Superior risk-adjusted returns over the past year

Positive total and free cash flow in recent quarters

High return on assets and invested capital, signaling strong operational efficiency

Top-tier revenue and earnings growth over the past 5 years

Strong gross profit to asset ratio, favored by value investors

Consistently high dividend returns, outperforming sector peers

High return on equity, suggesting excellent capital deployment

Large market cap, offering added stability

These metrics indicate that Nvidia is not just riding the AI wave—it’s leading it, with a financial foundation to back it up.

Negative Fundamentals

Valuation concerns: Nvidia appears overpriced on several fronts, including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, price-to-cash flow, and price-to-free cash flow metrics

High volatility: The stock has shown above-average volatility, which may deter risk-averse investors

Below median total returns over a five-year horizon, despite recent gains

Low dividend growth, which may concern income-focused investors

Investors should note that these concerns primarily revolve around valuation and volatility, not operational performance. This highlights the key debate: Is Nvidia’s growth priced in, or is there more room to run?

Recent Performance Snapshot:

1-week change: +0.83%

1-month change: +22.06%

1-year change: +27.27%

Conclusion: Can It Reach $169?

Nvidia’s ability to hit or exceed the $169 target hinges largely on its next earnings report and forward guidance. Given the strong fundamental profile, continued demand for AI and GPU products, and resilient cash flow generation, there’s a compelling case that Nvidia could reach this target in the medium term.

However, investors should remain aware of valuation risks and be prepared for volatility, particularly in a macro environment that remains uncertain. For those with a long-term horizon and higher risk tolerance, Nvidia continues to look like a leader worth watching—or holding.

Bottom Line: Yes, Nvidia has the fundamental strength and market momentum to reach the $169 average analyst target, but valuation and volatility remain key factors to monitor.

STA Research

STA Research (StockTargetAdvisor.com) is a independent Investment Research company that specializes in stock forecasting and analysis with integrated AI, based on our platform stocktargetadvisor.com, EST 2007.