Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)
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Current Technical Snapshot
A bearish candlestick formation—specifically, a Doji Harami—is emerging on Nvidia’s charts. This reversal pattern (a large bullish candle followed by an indecisive Doji entirely within its range) signals waning bullish momentum. If confirmed by a subsequent below-Doji close, this pattern could escalate to a Sell signal, suggesting higher downside risk in the short term.
Earnings Outlook & Implied Move Expectations
Earnings Date: Nvidia is scheduled to report its Q2 fiscal 2026 results on August 27, 2025, after market close.
Expected Post-Earnings Move (Options-Based):
According to Options AI, the implied one-day move post-earnings averages around ±6.26%
Historically, in Q1 (May 2025), the realized one-day move was only +3.2%, despite expectations being roughly ±6.7% based on options.
What Could Nvidia’s Stock Range Be After August 27?
Given the current price near $183, analysts and options markets suggest an expected trading range of about –6% to +6%. That translates to approximately:
Lower bound: ~$172
Upper bound: ~$194
Historical patterns confirm that while implied volatility tends to overstate actual moves, the +3% to +4% realized range seen in Q1 still implies a post-earnings fluctuation to somewhere between $177 and $190.
Analyst Sentiment
Bullish Backdrop: Nvidia remains a favorite among analysts. Morgan Stanley recently raised its price target from $170 to $200, citing strong demand for Blackwell chips.
Investor Interest: Mutual funds continue to accumulate Nvidia stock for the eighth straight quarter, buoyed by its industry-leading role in AI and recent regulatory wins facilitating chip sales to China.
Post-Earnings Drift (PEAD): Should Nvidia beat expectations, there’s a high likelihood its stock will continue to drift upward for weeks following the report, as per this well-documented market trend.
Outlook
Nvidia is at a critical juncture. While technical signals warn of short-term risks, the market’s bullish momentum—especially in AI sectors—remains strong. For traders, sub-$172 might trigger defensive strategies, while a move above $190–$194 could revive bullish bets. Watching intraday action and options-implied pricing in the days following earnings will be key.
STA Research (StockTargetAdvisor.com) is a independent Investment Research company that specializes in stock forecasting and analysis with integrated AI, based on our platform stocktargetadvisor.com, EST 2007.
