Global Markets
Canadian Markets
Canada’s TSX extended its rally to a fourth straight week, showing resilience despite a sharp 10% drop in oil prices following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which pressured the energy sector.
Economists expect a significant jump in Canada’s CPI reading on Monday, as gasoline prices surged 21% month-over-month, the largest increase on record since data began in 1950.
According to Douglas Porter of Bank of Montreal, this spike will likely push inflation from 1.8% in February to around 2.6% in March and above 3% in April, creating a near-term “shock” for consumers.
While the federal government’s temporary fuel tax suspension may offer modest relief, it is unlikely to fully offset rising energy costs, especially if geopolitical tensions persist.
American Markets
US stocks moved broadly higher, supported by easing oil prices and optimism around the reopening of Hormuz, which helped extend a strong market run.
Netflix reported strong Q1 results, beating expectations on revenue and subscribers, but the stock fell sharply due to weak forward guidance and the unexpected departure of Reed Hastings, highlighting how forward outlooks matter more than backward-looking results.
Christopher Waller a member of Governor of the board of The Federal Reserve noted that the U.S. economy faces a complex mix of easing core inflation, a structurally weaker labour market, and new geopolitical inflation shocks. The key uncertainty is whether energy-driven inflation proves temporary or becomes embedded, which would complicate Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Anthony Scaramucci, hedge fund manager at SkyBridge Capital argued that the U.S. may already be in a recession, pointing to weakening consumer spending and rising cost pressures, though such a downturn may only become visible in lagging economic data later this year.
Mohamed El-Erian, the Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz warned that even a relatively strong U.S. economy is not immune to the global effects of higher energy prices and borrowing costs, which continue to strain household finances.
European Markets
European markets finished 2% higher with some indexes on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. According to Bundesbank Germany is expected to avoid a recession, while Italy posted modest growth of 0.3% in Q1, supported by Olympic-related activity, though the EU’s trade surplus has narrowed sharply due to weaker exports to the U.S.
In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed to a six-week high as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations for further rate hikes. Gains were led by travel and financial stocks, while energy names lagged significantly due to the drop in crude prices.
UK economic data showed modest but improving momentum early in the year, with January growth revised up to 0.1% and February GDP expanding on broad-based strength across services, manufacturing (both +0.5%), and construction (+1%). However, this recovery is viewed as fragile., as the conflict in the Middle East has already dampened business confidence and raised risks through higher energy prices and borrowing costs, of which the key vulnerabilities for a net energy-importing economy like the UK.
Analysts warn that recession risks are rising as the oil price stays elevated, while even a permament resolution may leave lasting economic effects.
Corporate News
Abbott Laboratories (ABT): Piper Sandler cuts its target to $115 from $135 following disappointing Q1 results.
AEVEX Corp. (AEVEX): Raised $320 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $20, reflecting strong demand for defense and drone technology.
Alcoa Corp. (AA): Jefferies lowers its target to $82 from $85 after weaker-than-expected earnings.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Signed a long-term power supply deal with NiSource to support a large data center; also facing ongoing regulatory scrutiny globally.
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): Expanded an agreement with NiSource to accelerate power delivery for infrastructure projects.
Apple Inc. (AAPL): iPhone shipments in China rose 20% in Q1, outperforming peers despite overall market weakness.
Autoliv Inc. (ALV): Reported better-than-expected Q1 results and reiterated guidance, sending shares higher.
Blackstone Inc. (BX): JPMorgan raises its target to $142 from $122, citing stronger dealmaking activity.
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM): Selling a minority stake in La Trobe Financial at a $2.15B valuation while retaining majority ownership.
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST): JPMorgan raises its target to $1,110 from $1,060 on confidence in continued growth.
Ford Motor Co. (F): Recalling about 1.4 million F-150 trucks due to potential transmission issues.
GE Vernova Inc. (GEV): Facing a legal challenge that could prevent it from exiting a major offshore wind project.
Netflix Inc. (NFLX): Shares fell despite strong earnings due to weak guidance and the departure of co-founder Reed Hastings.
Newmont Corp. (NEM): National Bank downgrades the stock to Sector Perform on a cautious outlook.
NiSource Inc. (NI): Signed long-term agreements with Alphabet and Amazon to supply power to data centers.
Silgan Holdings Inc. (SLGN): Its takeover bid for Gerresheimer was rejected, ending discussions.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA): Hiring semiconductor engineers in Taiwan for its “Terafab” AI chip project.
Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER): Acquiring a 4.5% stake in Delivery Hero, expanding its European footprint.
Warner Bros Discovery Inc. (WBD): Involved in a proposed $110B acquisition, with plans to increase film output if approved.
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