Global Markets
Canadian Markets
Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index,traded to fresh all-time highs, supported primarily by strength in gold-related stocks as gold prices extended their rally. The move underscores the index’s heavy weighting toward materials and energy producers, with precious metals miners benefiting from sustained safe-haven demand amid moderating global growth expectations and persistent inflation pressures. Statistics Canada reported that retail sales declined 0.4% month-over-month to $70 billion in December, largely due to weaker volumes at new and used vehicle dealerships. The pullback suggests some cooling in discretionary consumer spending at year-end, potentially reflecting elevated borrowing costs and tighter household financial conditions.
American Markets
US stocks moved higher despite a softer-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP print. The economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4 2025, missing the 2.9% consensus estimate. While the growth slowdown points to deceleration in aggregate demand, markets appeared to interpret the data constructively, possibly viewing weaker growth as reducing the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
However, the inflationary data complicated that narrative, with te Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rising over 2.9% year-over-year in December. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.0% annually and 0.4% month-over-month, indicating renewed price pressures beneath the headline level. The stickiness in core inflation suggests that disinflation progress may be stalling, potentially constraining the Fed’s ability to pivot toward easing policy in the near term.
European Markets
European markets also trended higher and were on course for weekly gains. Sentiment improved on the back of stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and reduced fears of AI-related disruption across traditional industries.
Germany’s business activity accelerated to a four-month high in February, with manufacturing showing signs of stabilization after a prolonged contraction. The improvement signals tentative recovery momentum in the eurozone’s largest economy.
In the United Kingdom, markets advanced as economic data indicated strengthening private-sector activity. The S&P Global UK Composite PMI rose to 53.9 in February from 53.7 in January, marking the strongest reading since April 2024. A level above 50 indicates expansion, suggesting that business activity continues to recover. Consumer spending also increased at its fastest pace in four years, reflecting improved household confidence at the start of 2026. However, despite rising activity, firms remain cautious, with ongoing job cuts highlighting uneven labour market conditions.
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