Market Analysis: Nov 12th, 2025

Market Analysis: Nov 12th, 2025

Global Markets

Canadian Markets

Canada’s TSX Index rose over 1% today despite a sharp 4% drop in oil prices, as strong gains in gold and materials stocks more than offset weakness in the energy sector. The rally was driven by a surge in precious metals, with the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index climbing over 3%, alongside broad strength across the mining sector. Investors rotated into resource and materials names amid rising gold prices and optimism around global demand for metals, which helped lift the broader index even as energy stocks lagged.

According to UBS, Canada’s economic momentum has weakened in mid-2025, with GDP growth now tracking below 2% as the Bank of Canada shifts toward a more accommodative stance.  UBS attributes this policy shift to a softer job market and easing inflation, supported by Canada’s removal of U.S. tariffs and improved alignment with USMCA trade rules, which have reduced consumer price pressures. The bank projects GDP growth of 1.5% for 2025, slightly lower than 1.6% in 2024, before improving modestly to 1.8% in 2026 and 2027.

American Markets

U.S. stocks traded mostly higher as optimism grew over a potential resolution to the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, boosting market sentiment and lifting major indices. However, the Nasdaq underperformed, closing slightly in the red as renewed concerns over stretched technology valuations weighed on investor confidence. However, AMD’s stock surged 8% after the company released stronger growth forecasts driven by robust demand for AI and data center chips.

Analysts believe the current U.S. economic outlook is heavily reliant on AI-driven growth, which primarily benefits upper-income households, while other segments face mounting financial pressure. The only notable expansion is occurring in AI-related sectors such as software, computers, and peripheral equipment, making overall growth potentially fragile. Additional headwinds are expected from President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which could reduce real GDP by about 0.8 percentage points, with more than half of that impact occurring in 2026. However, tax refunds from the White House’s budget bill may provide some short-term relief. The tariffs could also contribute to upward pressure on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure.

European Markets

European markets moved 1 percent higher, led by strength in financials and energy stocks, as investors assessed a wave of mixed corporate earnings reports. The positive tone reflected resilience across European blue chips despite lingering concerns over inflation and slowing growth.

UK markets rose modestly, supported by gains in mining, industrial, and electrical equipment stocks. Economists expect that Britain’s economic growth continued to cool in the third quarter, with the Office for National Statistics forecasted to report just 0.2% GDP growth for the three months ending in September, down from 0.3% in the previous quarter and a notable slowdown from 0.7% in Q1. The deceleration underscores the cumulative impact of higher interest rates, softening consumer demand, and ongoing fiscal uncertainty ahead of the key autumn Budget, which is expected to outline further spending restraint measures.

Corporate Stock News

Adentra Inc (ADEN:CA) — Raymond James raised its target price to C$46 from C$43, citing strong earnings power, margin expansion in specialty categories, and a solid balance sheet.

Air Canada (AC:CA) — Jefferies cut its target price to C$18 from C$19, as higher labor costs and delayed aircraft deliveries are expected to limit near-term margin expansion.

Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) & TotalEnergies SE (TTE) — TotalEnergies signed a 15-year power purchase agreement to supply Google with 1.5 terawatt hours of renewable electricity annually from its Montpelier solar farm in Ohio. The project, connected to the PJM grid, will power Google’s local data centers. TotalEnergies said the deal demonstrates its ability to meet tech firms’ growing renewable energy needs, while CEO Patrick Pouyanné noted that expanding electricity investments helps reduce the company’s exposure to oil and gas volatility.

Barrick Mining Corp (ABX:CA) — Cormark Securities upgraded Barrick to Buy from Market Perform, highlighting an attractive valuation, improving execution, and long-term upside from the Fourmile expansion project.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) — TD Cowen raised its target price to $481 from $479 after the company delivered stronger-than-expected quarterly results, driven by higher insurance profits and foreign exchange gains.

BILL Holdings Inc (BILL) — The payments firm is exploring a potential sale amid pressure from activist investor Starboard Value, which holds an 8.5% stake and has nominated four board candidates to push for changes. BILL believes its stock is undervalued and has hired advisers to explore strategic alternatives.

Calumet Inc (CLMT) — TD Cowen raised its target price to $18 from $15, following strong quarterly results and expectations for improved performance at Montana Renewables LLC due to lower feedstock costs.

Chevron Corp (CVX) — The company plans to grow free cash flow by over 10% annually through 2030, increase production, and reduce costs after completing its $55 billion Hess acquisition. Chevron emphasized its strong balance sheet and disciplined capital spending as foundations for long-term resilience.

CVS Health Corp (CVS) & Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) — Lilly is dropping CVS Health’s Caremark drug plan for its employees after CVS removed Lilly’s weight-loss drug Zepbound from its coverage list in favor of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. Starting January 1, Lilly employees will transition to the Rightway pharmacy benefit manager.

EVI Industries Inc (EVI) — D.A. Davidson cut its target price to $35 from $40, following slightly weaker quarterly results and higher near-term costs related to new e-commerce and CRM investments.

General Motors Co (GM) — GM has instructed suppliers to eliminate Chinese-sourced parts and materials by 2027, as it aims to strengthen supply chain resiliency amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The move is part of a broader strategy to reduce geopolitical risks and manufacturing disruptions.

International Business Machines Corp (IBM) — IBM unveiled “Loon,” a new experimental quantum computing chip that marks a significant step toward developing practical quantum computers. Analysts say the chip integrates new qubit connection technology that could improve reliability, though it also makes the chips more complex to manufacture.

Microsoft Corp (MSFT) — Microsoft announced it is expanding its quantum research hub in Denmark, building a second facility in Lyngby, its largest quantum site globally. The site supports development of the Majorana 1 chip, designed for more stable quantum computing performance. Microsoft’s total Danish quantum investments now exceed $156 million.

Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) — The company expects flat to 2% production growth in 2026, with capital spending projected to decline to $6.3–$6.7 billion from the 2025 range of $7.1–$7.3 billion. Occidental plans to maintain output stability while managing costs amid lower crude prices.

On Holding AG (ONON) — The Swiss athletic footwear maker raised its 2025 net sales forecast to 2.98 billion CHF and boosted its profit margin outlook after reporting a 24.9% year-over-year sales increase. Demand for its Cloudmonster and Roger Pro shoes remains strong despite higher prices.

Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) — Jefferies increased its target price to $250 from $235, expressing confidence in the company’s ability to maintain robust growth and strong free cash flow margins.

PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) — PayPal announced a re-launch in the UK, giving customers access to debit and credit cards, as well as its PayPal+ loyalty program. The move marks its renewed expansion into the British market after restructuring operations post-Brexit.

Quebecor Inc (QBR.B:CA) — TD Cowen raised its target price to C$55 from C$52, reflecting strong stock momentum and expectations for a recovery in mobile ARPU growth as subscriber metrics stabilize.

Septerna Inc (SEPR) — H.C. Wainwright raised its target price to $30 from $26, citing optimism over upcoming clinical catalysts, a solid balance sheet, and long-term potential from its obesity treatment partnership with Novo Nordisk.

Ad