Market Analysis: Oct 1st, 2025

STA Research
October 1st, 2025
Market Analysis: Oct 1st, 2025
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Global Markets

Canadian Markets

Canada’s main stock index moved higher on Wednesday, as gold’s rise offset pressure from a pullback in oil prices. However, fresh data underscored ongoing weakness in Canada’s manufacturing sector. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 47.7 in September, down from 48.3 in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction. The decline reflected falling production and new orders, with businesses citing uncertainty in global trade conditions and weaker demand as the primary drivers.

American Markets

American stock indices rebounded after a weak open, with major benchmarks pushing into positive territory by afternoon trading. Investors shrugged off the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, instead focusing on the ADP private payrolls report, which showed that jobs in the private sector fell unexpectedly in September. The sharp miss versus forecasts, boosted trader optimism, as the data solidifies more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

European Markets

European markets advanced broadly, led by healthcare stocks, after a deal involving Pfizer (PFE:US) reduced sector uncertainty and boosted investor confidence. Gains in healthcare helped offset lingering weakness in banks and energy. Meanwhile, France’s manufacturing PMI showed another contraction in September, highlighting fragile business confidence. Across the eurozone, inflation data showed a modest pickup, reinforcing the case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to hold rates steady rather than tighten further.

In the UK, markets surged to record highs, powered by strong performances in healthcare names. Despite the rally, underlying data pointed to economic headwinds, as UK manufacturing shrank at its fastest pace in five months, with PMI data underscoring weak demand conditions. Sterling strengthened slightly, aided by expectations that the Bank of England may keep rates supportive despite the ongoing industrial slowdown.

Corporate Stock News

AES Corp (AES:US) & BlackRock Inc (BLK:US):
BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) is reportedly nearing a $38 billion acquisition of AES, including debt. The deal highlights growing utility demand from AI-driven data centers. Talks are advanced but could still fall through.

Alphabet Inc (GOOGL:US), Apple Inc (AAPL:US) & Meta Platforms Inc (META:US):
A federal judge rejected Big Tech’s attempts to dismiss lawsuits alleging they promoted illegal gambling apps through their platforms. Section 230 protections were deemed insufficient to shield Apple, Google, and Meta from consumer protection claims.

Alphabet Inc (GOOGL:US) & Comcast Corp (CMCSA:US):
YouTube TV and NBCUniversal reached a short-term contract extension, avoiding a blackout of major programming such as Sunday Night Football and America’s Got Talent while carriage fee negotiations continue.

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN:US):
Amazon won dismissal of a discrimination lawsuit brought by a former Amazon Music employee. The judge ruled that poor performance, not race or gender bias, was the cause of reduced responsibilities and missed promotion opportunities.

Apple Inc (AAPL:US):
Apple and OpenAI requested dismissal of Elon Musk’s xAI lawsuit, which alleged anti-competitive practices. Separately, the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission sued Apple, claiming a retail manager made antisemitic comments and wrongfully fired a Jewish employee.

Arm Holdings PLC (ARM:US) & Qualcomm Inc (QCOM:US):
Arm plans to appeal a U.S. court ruling that upheld Qualcomm’s jury victory in a licensing dispute over chips made by subsidiary Nuvia. The decision affirms Qualcomm’s position that it did not breach its licensing agreement.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.A:US) & Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY:US):
Berkshire Hathaway is in talks to acquire Occidental’s OxyChem unit for about $10 billion. The sale would support Occidental’s cash-raising efforts, while marking Berkshire’s largest deal since 2022.

BWX Technologies Inc (BWXT:US):
BWX secured a 10-year, $1.6 billion U.S. government contract to build a depleted uranium manufacturing facility in Tennessee. The material will be used for defense applications, including nuclear-powered submarines and aircraft carriers.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM:US):
Exxon will cut 10–15% of staff in Singapore and lay off 2,000 workers globally as part of a restructuring plan. The shift will relocate employees to its Jurong site and reduce office-based roles.

KKR & Co Inc (KKR:US):
KKR acquired a minority stake in Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s (ADNOC) gas pipeline assets through its long-term capital funds. The deal continues KKR’s energy infrastructure investments in the Gulf region.

Lithium Americas Corp (LAC:US) (LAC:CA):
The U.S. Department of Energy acquired a 5% equity stake in Lithium Americas and its Thacker Pass project joint venture with GM. Lithium Americas also drew $435 million from a $2.26 billion DOE loan, boosting shares higher in premarket trade.

Morgan Stanley (MS:US):
The Federal Reserve reduced Morgan Stanley’s required capital buffer from 5.1% to 4.3%, after reviewing stress test calculations. The bank welcomed the adjustment, which eases regulatory pressure.

Nike Inc (NKE:US):
Nike beat Q1 profit expectations and reported a surprise revenue increase despite tariff headwinds and weakness in China. Tariffs are now expected to cost $1.5 billion in 2025, higher than prior estimates. Wholesale recovery is forecast for fiscal 2026.

Tesla Inc (TSLA:US):
Tesla raised lease prices across its U.S. fleet after the expiration of a $7,500 federal EV tax credit. Model Y leases now range $529–$599 per month, while Model 3 leases are $429–$759. In Europe, Tesla sales rose in France, Denmark and Spain, with the new Model Y becoming Denmark’s best-selling car.

Uber Technologies Inc (UBER:US):
A jury ruled Uber is not liable for a passenger’s alleged sexual assault by a driver, though it found Uber negligent in safety measures. The case is one of thousands in U.S. courts involving passenger safety claims against the company.

Walt Disney Co (DIS:US):
Disney demanded Character.AI stop using its copyrighted characters, citing misuse in AI chatbots that engaged in harmful and exploitative behavior. Character.AI said user-generated content is responsible and removed the disputed characters.

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