Market Analysis: Sept 25th, 2025

Market Analysis: Sept 25th, 2025

Global Markets

Canadian Markets

Canada’s TSX pulled back from recent record highs as investors locked in gains heading into the end of the quarter. Market sentiment was pressured after the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) cut Canada’s growth forecasts for the next two years, citing trade hurdles and the drag of rising tariffs. The PBO also warned that the federal deficit is expected to widen sharply from $51.7 billion this year to $68.5 billion next year, with federal debt projected to climb above 43% of GDP.  Housing remains another weak spot for the Canadian economy. Even as home prices have cooled modestly and interest rates have pulled back from cycle highs, first-time buyers continue to stay on the sidelines, discouraged by affordability challenges and economic uncertainty.

American Markets

US Stocks dropped for the third day in a row, with investors shifting to the sidelines to reduce risk ahead of Friday’s key Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. The latest employment report revealed jobless claims unexpectedly fell, suggesting labor market strengthing. GDP growth was revised sharply higher, in which stronger-than-expected data complicates expectations for the timing and scale of Federal Reserve rate cuts, especially amid signs of major disagreements within the Fed over policy direction for more rate cuts.

European Markets

European shares fell broadly, touching a three-week low, with med-tech stocks leading the losses. Sentiment weakened further after reports of new U.S. import-related probes, adding to trade tensions. In a significant financial development, a consortium of nine major European banks—including ING and UniCredit—announced the creation of a new company to launch a euro-denominated stablecoin. The initiative is designed to counter U.S. dominance in digital markets, particularly as American firms prepare their own tokens.

Eurozone credit data showed a modest uptick in lending growth, a positive sign for the region’s financial conditions.

In the UK, stocks fell as economic data continued to disappoint. Car manufacturing production dropped in August, highlighting ongoing supply chain challenges and weaker demand trends. Retail sales data showed a decline for the 12th consecutive month, underscoring persistent consumer weakness amid cost-of-living pressures.

Corporate Stock News

Air Canada (AC:CA) saw its shares fall nearly 3% after a four-day flight attendants strike disrupted operations. The airline now expects a C$375 million hit to operating income and revised its 2025 adjusted core profit guidance to C$2.9–3.1 billion, down from the previous range of C$3.2–3.6 billion. The strike, involving 10,000 workers represented by the Canadian Union of Public Employees, ended with a tentative agreement. Analysts cut their target forecast in repsonse to the news.

Apple Inc (AAPL:US) urged the European Commission to repeal or revise the Digital Markets Act (DMA), citing delays in features and increased privacy and security risks for EU users. The company also engaged in early-stage talks with Intel Corp regarding a potential investment, signaling interest in closer collaboration and supporting Intel’s turnaround efforts.

Birkenstock Holding Plc (BIRK:US) raised its fiscal year 2025 revenue expectations, driven by strong demand for its clogs and shoes despite a 15% U.S. tariff. The company also acquired a production facility near Dresden, Germany, expected to expand manufacturing capacity by the end of fiscal 2027.

Blackstone Inc (BX:US) is weighing strategic options for Ancestry.com, including an IPO or sale, with early-stage discussions suggesting a potential valuation of around US$10 billion. The firm also postponed a shareholder meeting for TaskUs Inc, delaying a take-private vote to October 8 to allow more time to solicit shareholder support.

Boeing Co (BA:US) delivered the first of two 777 freighters to China’s Suparna Airlines, marking the first new-build freighter delivery to a Chinese carrier since U.S.-China tariff tensions.

Citigroup Inc (C:US) agreed to sell a 25% stake in Grupo Financiero Banamex to a company owned by Mexican billionaire Fernando Chico Pardo and his family, valuing Banamex at $9.12 billion. The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026.

Cintas Corp (CTAS:US) saw JP Morgan cut its target price to $230 from $246, citing softer-than-expected margins and modest guidance upgrades.

Eli Lilly and Co (LLY:US) plans to launch its experimental oral weight-loss drug, orforglipron, in India, providing an alternative to injectable GLP-1 drugs. The company intends to file for approvals in the United States, Britain, the European Union, Japan, and China.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX:US) had its target price cut by JP Morgan to $46 from $56 following a mudslide that disrupted operations at its PTFI Indonesia mine.

HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBC:US) reported that a quantum computing trial with IBM delivered a 34% improvement in predicting bond trade execution, showing early potential for faster and more accurate financial decision-making.

Koninklijke Philips NV (PHIA:AS) is actively engaged with U.S. policymakers regarding Section 232 import investigations into medical and industrial goods, but the company does not expect any immediate impact.

Meta Platforms Inc (META:US) was given until the end of September by Singapore authorities to implement facial recognition measures on Facebook to curb impersonation scams, with fines for noncompliance.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM:US) announced a new suite of chips for PCs and phones, including the Snapdragon X2 Elite, which features a corporate security tool called Guardian for desktop and laptop users.

Royal Bank of Canada (RY:CA) reported that a former employee was charged with fraud, unauthorized access, and identity theft after allegedly exploiting internal systems and social media schemes to extend credit lines.

RTX Corp (RTX:US) said that its Collins Aerospace subsidiary faced a cyber intrusion that disrupted the MUSE passenger processing system at several European airports, causing widespread travel delays.

Revolution Medicines Inc (RVMD:US) saw its target price raised by JP Morgan to $71 from $70, citing the strong clinical potential of its pan-RAS inhibitor as a treatment for pancreatic cancer.

Toyota Motor Corp (TM:US) opened the first section of Woven City near Japan’s Mt. Fuji, a real-world testing environment for autonomous vehicles, robotics, and software-driven urban technologies.

UBS Group AG (UBS:US) was told by Swiss financial regulators that its crisis plan needs further work to provide more options for emergency restructuring, aiming to prevent a repeat of the 2023 Credit Suisse collapse.

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