Could Nvidia Become the Next BlackBerry?

Could Nvidia Become the Next BlackBerry?

Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)

Nvidia (NVDA) is the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence (AI) chips, powering the global boom in machine learning, data centers, and cloud infrastructure. Its meteoric rise has made it one of the most valuable companies in the world, and its GPUs have become the default choice for AI development.

Nvidia and BlackBerry are long-term partners in the automotive sector, with BlackBerry’s QNX operating system—renowned for its top-tier safety and cybersecurity certifications—now fully integrated into NVIDIA’s DRIVE AGX Thor platform for autonomous vehicles. This collaboration combines Nvidia’s high-performance AI computing with QNX’s safety-certified software, enabling automakers and suppliers to design, test, and deploy next-generation autonomous and software-defined vehicles more quickly and securely. The partnership strengthens both companies’ positions at the core of the future mobility ecosystem.

But history has a way of humbling even the most dominant companies. Investors with long memories will recall BlackBerry (BB)—once a household name, now a shadow of its former self. At its peak in 2008, BlackBerry controlled more than half of North America’s smartphone market, only to collapse within years after Apple and Google disrupted the industry.

This raises the uncomfortable question: Could Nvidia’s dominance in AI one day crumble the way BlackBerry’s did in smartphones?


Parallels Between Nvidia and BlackBerry

  1. Market Dominance That Looks Unshakable
    BlackBerry once seemed invincible. Business professionals, government agencies, and consumers relied on its secure mobile devices. Today, Nvidia sits in a similar position, controlling more than 80% of the AI GPU market. But market leadership can evaporate quickly when competitors catch up.

  2. Complacency Risk
    BlackBerry underestimated how quickly the smartphone landscape would shift. Nvidia could face the same trap if it assumes its current lead will last forever. Rivals like AMD, Intel, and custom chips from hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft) are already chipping away at its moat.

  3. Overvaluation and Hype Cycle
    Investors drove BlackBerry’s valuation sky-high in the mid-2000s, only for the stock to collapse once growth slowed. Nvidia’s current valuation is similarly lofty, pricing in near-perfect execution and perpetual AI demand. Any disappointment—slower adoption, earnings misses, or tighter regulations—could trigger a sharp re-rating.

  4. Geopolitical Exposure
    BlackBerry’s decline was accelerated by global competition. Nvidia now faces its own international risks: U.S. export controls on advanced chips to China could undercut one of its biggest markets, leaving it vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.


Why the Risks Matter Now

The AI boom has propelled Nvidia to heights few imagined, but there are signs of fragility:

Dependence on AI GPUs: Like BlackBerry’s reliance on one core product, Nvidia’s fortunes are tied to a single market. If AI hardware demand slows or cheaper alternatives emerge, Nvidia could see its dominance challenged.

Ecosystem Shifts: Just as Apple and Google won the smartphone war with software-driven ecosystems, a new player could redefine AI computing in ways that bypass Nvidia’s CUDA advantage.

Cyclical End Markets: Semiconductor markets are notoriously cyclical. If the AI investment wave cools, Nvidia’s revenue and margins could face pressure.


The Bearish Case:

While Nvidia today looks unstoppable, the same was said about BlackBerry in its prime. Both companies became symbols of their era—BlackBerry for mobile productivity, Nvidia for artificial intelligence. Both rode hype cycles that pushed their valuations to extremes. And both faced competitors waiting for their chance to strike.

For Nvidia, the question isn’t whether AI is real—it clearly is. The risk lies in whether Nvidia can maintain its stranglehold on the technology as the market matures, margins compress, and challengers rise.


Final Take

If history is any guide, every tech leader eventually faces disruption. BlackBerry’s fall reminds investors that dominance can vanish almost overnight. Nvidia’s current valuation and concentration risk leave it exposed to similar dynamics.

Bottom line:

Nvidia may not collapse tomorrow, but if investors blindly assume it will remain the sole AI leader, they risk repeating the same mistakes made during BlackBerry’s rise and fall. The lesson? Even the most powerful companies can succumb to the fate of  BlackBerry.

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