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Goldman Sachs has issued a Hold rating on Tesla with a 12-month price target of $285.00, which implies a potential downside of about 7% from current levels. This reflects a cautious stance on Tesla’s near-term performance, due to concerns about margins, competition in the EV market, and slower growth in key geographies.
Morningstar has a more bearish view, reiterating an “Underperform” or “Sell” rating, with a 12 month price target of $250.00 per share, suggesting even further downside. Morningstar’s valuation implies the stock is currently overvalued relative to its fundamentals.
Stock Forecast
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) currently obtains a consensus “Hold” rating among analysts, reflecting a cautious stance amid ongoing volatility in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. This consensus suggests that while Tesla remains a dominant force in the industry, analysts are divided over its near-term growth prospects and valuation.
The average 12-month price target for Tesla stands at approximately $300 per share, indicating modest downside potential from current levels. This target implies that analysts expect Tesla to maintain its market position and deliver incremental gains, but not without navigating key challenges — including rising competition from legacy automakers, evolving EV regulations, and pricing pressures in major markets such as China.
While bullish analysts highlight Tesla’s technological edge, growing AI and autonomous driving initiatives, and expanding manufacturing footprint, more conservative voices remain wary of margin compression, slowing global EV demand, and high valuation multiples. As such, the “Hold” consensus and $300 target reflect a balanced outlook, with a mix of optimism about Tesla’s innovation pipeline and caution around macroeconomic and competitive risks.
David is veteran trader, and a former investment analyst at private equity firm, and is currently a STA Research analyst.
The divergence between Tesla’s public image and its valuation fundamentals is really striking here. Analyst skepticism could point to a broader market recalibration, especially with EV competition heating up and growth slowing in key regions.